Ember

Ember is a revolutionary public AI prediction engine designed to enhance trust and transparency in predictive analytics. Built on the principle that an AI's reasoning should be visible, Ember provides an innovative solution for those looking to make informed decisions based on predictive data. Each day at 7 AM EST, three distinct AI models—Claude, Grok, and Gemini—operate independently to analyze live Polymarket markets before they resolve. By comparing their predictions against the crowd, Ember flags significant divergences of 10+ points as high-conviction signals, identifying opportunities for bettors. This real-time approach ensures that every decision is backed by rigorous analysis and a transparent record that spans 365 days. With a focus on accuracy tracked through Brier scores, Ember empowers users to make informed bets without the fear of manipulated data. Whether you are an experienced bettor or new to the prediction market, Ember serves as your trusted companion to navigate complex decisions confidently.

Independent AI Predictions

Ember utilizes three distinct AI models—Claude, Grok, and Gemini—that independently analyze market conditions and provide their predictions without consulting each other. This ensures diverse perspectives and a richer understanding of potential outcomes.

High-Conviction Signals

When any of the AIs diverge from the crowd consensus by 10 or more points, this is flagged as a high-conviction signal. This feature highlights critical insights, allowing users to spot discrepancies in the market and capitalize on unique betting opportunities.

Real-Time Data Synthesis

Ember synthesizes information from over 20 sources, including live prediction markets, bookmaker lines, and AI research feeds. This comprehensive data collection ensures that users have access to the most accurate and up-to-date information before making any betting decisions.

Transparent Record Keeping

Every prediction made by Ember is timestamped and locked before the outcome is revealed. This commitment to transparency means that nothing is edited or deleted, and users can always refer back to past calls, fostering trust in the system.

Informed Betting Decisions

Users can leverage Ember's high-conviction signals to make informed betting choices in various markets. By assessing the divergences between the AI predictions and crowd sentiment, bettors can identify profitable opportunities.

Competitive Analysis

Ember serves as an essential tool for analysts and researchers looking to understand market trends and the performance of different betting strategies. By reviewing the daily calls and outcomes, they can refine their methodologies.

AI Model Evaluation

Developers and researchers in the AI space can use Ember’s transparent records to evaluate the effectiveness of different AI models in predicting market outcomes. This allows for a deeper understanding of AI capabilities in real-world applications.

Engagement in Prediction Markets

Individuals interested in participating in prediction markets can use Ember to enhance their engagement. With the ability to see real-time signals and predictions, users can become more confident and strategic in their betting approaches.

How does Ember ensure the accuracy of its predictions?

Ember tracks the accuracy of its predictions using Brier scores, which reward both correctness and confidence. This helps in calibrating the models and ensuring that users receive reliable predictions.

What happens when the AIs disagree?

When the AIs disagree by 10 or more points from the crowd consensus, it is flagged as a high-conviction signal. This indicates a potential opportunity for bettors to explore differing opinions in the market.

Can I access past predictions made by Ember?

Yes, Ember maintains a transparent record of all predictions made since its inception. Users can review historical data, including wrong calls and their post-mortems, to understand the decision-making process better.

What types of data does Ember analyze?

Ember synthesizes data from various sources, including live prediction markets, bookmaker lines, AI research feeds, and real-time sentiment analysis. This multi-faceted approach ensures comprehensive insights into market conditions.